[청랑 킬러문항] 2026 수능 영어 빈칸 문제 #61

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지문)

In forecasting competitions, accuracy does not emerge from compelling narratives but from systematic numerical reasoning. Skilled forecasters start with an external perspective—examining how often similar situations have occurred in the past—and only afterward incorporate details unique to the present case. They break down vague questions into manageable components, estimate rough probabilities for each piece, and synthesize the results. When fresh information becomes available, they revise their estimates gradually, adjusting figures incrementally rather than reversing entire conclusions, and they evaluate their performance using quantitative scoring methods that expose overconfidence. In group settings, they collect individual judgments separately before any discussion to maintain diversity of thought, then combine these independent assessments and sometimes shift the aggregate slightly toward the extremes to reflect the strength of converging evidence from multiple informed sources.

What they consistently avoid is treating a forecast as a position to be defended; a sound probability estimate remains tentative, open to revision, and honest about remaining uncertainties. Against this background, the clearest distinction from traditional expert commentary lies not in better intuitions but in better methods. Dramatic stories encourage us to focus on memorable specifics and then construct explanations that fit those details; accomplished forecasters instead begin with general patterns observed across many cases and refine their view as case-specific evidence accumulates. In other words, they prioritize accuracy of probability alignment over persuasive storytelling, and continuous learning over commitment to initial beliefs. Understood this way, the fundamental principle guiding this approach is that predictive accuracy improves when forecasters first ______________________.

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Vocabulary

compelling	설득력 있는, 주목을 끄는
systematic	체계적인
external perspective	외부적 관점 (유사 사례 통계적 접근)
incorporate	포함하다, 통합하다
synthesize	종합하다
incrementally	점진적으로, 조금씩
aggregate	총합, 집계(명사); 종합하다(동사)
converging	수렴하는, 일치하는
tentative	잠정적인
alignment	정렬, 일치도
refine	다듬다, 정제하다

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문제) What best completes the blank?

① transform descriptive accounts into definite predictions before gathering statistical data
② establish baseline probabilities from historical patterns and then adjust cautiously based on specific evidence
③ emphasize case-specific details so that unique circumstances shape the initial estimate
④ postpone performance evaluation to encourage more adventurous forecasts
⑤ continue discussion until agreement is reached, then commit to a binary yes/no prediction

 

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