[청랑 킬러문항] 2025 수능 영어 빈칸 문제 #59

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지문)

Most risk management guidelines assume that the future will follow patterns similar to the past, with variations distributed predictably around a central tendency. However, in fields where outcomes are determined by rare and extreme events, such guidelines can foster a false sense of security. A single exceptional case can erase the stability built over years of consistent data; models that focus on typical fluctuations treat catastrophic possibilities as negligible errors. That is why effective strategies do not start by attempting to predict when or how the next crisis will occur. Instead, they focus on restructuring vulnerability: limiting potential losses, maintaining diverse positions where downside is capped but upside remains open, and avoiding optimization so rigid that a single failed assumption can collapse the entire framework.The psychological trap is more subtle. After a crisis unfolds, people construct narratives that make the event appear predictable in hindsight, which inadvertently validates the same flawed approaches used before the shock. This retroactive sense-making reduces discomfort but perpetuates weakness. Properly understood, the argument does not reject the value of knowledge; rather, it questions excessive confidence in highly calibrated models. The advocated approach is to view analytical tools as approximations, not precise reflections of reality—pairing them with margins of safety, backup systems, and uneven payoff structures so that unexpected events cause manageable damage instead of total failure. Thus, the passage suggests that the rational response to extreme unpredictability is not to forecast rare disruptions with greater accuracy but to ______________________.

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Vocabulary

central tendency	중심 경향
foster	조장하다, 키우다
catastrophic	파국적인, 치명적인
negligible	무시할 만한, 하찮은
restructure	재구성하다
inadvertently	뜻하지 않게, 무심코
retroactive	소급하는, 거슬러 올라가는
perpetuate	영속시키다
calibrated	정밀하게 조정된
margin of safety	안전 여유, 안전 마진

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문제) What best completes the blank?

① construct explanations that make exceptional events seem foreseeable after they happen
② reduce the range of data so that predictions center more tightly on the mean
③ structure positions and outcomes so that uncertainties inflict less harm than benefit
④ consolidate authority to prevent contradictory information from disrupting planning
⑤ extend the analysis period until extreme cases are smoothed out of the dataset

 

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